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The Uncertain Episode 1 The Last Quiet Day


Looking at the index, the value for approximately 3 months before and 1 month after the Trump inauguration was about 140. By the end of 2017, the last 3 months, the value was approximately 90. The index shows a generally decreasing uncertainty. But Menzie would like us to look at the recent spikes of the index and their cause. Fair enough.

One last observation, before the spike being discussed began another larger spike occurred beginning about De. 10, peaking about Jan. 6. This peak, I repeat, was larger than the current one and it had nothing to do with tariffs, but measured the uncertainty deriving from the Tax Bill passed and signed. That is how the index works, it might spike reasonably close to events then settle back down. If interest in the index remains after Menzie tires of it, it will be interesting to see at what level it settle to. 59ce067264


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